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International Treaty expiration

New START Treaty Expires, Raising Arms Race Fears

Analysis based on 146 articles · First reported Jan 30, 2026 · Last updated Feb 05, 2026

Sentiment
-70
Attention
6
Articles
146
Market Impact
Direct
Live prominence charts, article sentiment distribution, and event development timeline available on the NewsDesk Dashboard

The expiration of the New START Treaty is expected to lead to increased defense spending by the United States and Russia as they potentially expand their nuclear arsenals. This could also incentivize China to accelerate its nuclear build-up, creating a dangerous three-way arms race and increasing global instability, negatively impacting market sentiment for defense contractors and potentially leading to higher geopolitical risk premiums.

Defense International Relations Government

The New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between Russia and the United States, expired on February 5, leaving no caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in over half a century. This development has raised fears of an unconstrained nuclear arms race involving Russia, the United States, and China. Russian President Vladimir Putin had proposed extending the treaty's limits for another year, but U.S. President Donald Trump remained noncommittal, insisting that any new pact must include China. China, however, has rebuffed these calls, stating its nuclear forces are not on the same scale as those of the United States and Russia, while urging the United States to resume nuclear dialogue with Russia. Arms control advocates, including the Arms Control Association and the Federation of American Scientists, have expressed grave concerns about the potential for increased global instability and nuclear proliferation. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called the expiration a 'grave moment' for international peace and security. The termination of New START follows a series of other arms control agreements that have lapsed or been withdrawn from, further eroding the framework for managing nuclear risks.

100 New START expired
90 United States Considering not extending New START treaty Russia
90 Russia proposed one-year extension of New START United States
90 United States noncommittal on New START extension Russia
90 Vladimir Putin signed decree lowering threshold for using nuclear weapons
90 António Guterres urged negotiation of new nuclear arms control framework United States
90 António Guterres urged negotiation of new nuclear arms control framework Russia
90 Russia released from nuclear arsenal restrictions
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cnt
Russia views the expiration of the New START Treaty negatively but states it will act responsibly. It has proposed extending the treaty's limits for a year and remains open to dialogue, but also ready to take military-technical measures if national security is threatened. Russia has also developed new nuclear-capable systems like the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo.
Importance 100 Sentiment -50
cnt
The United States has not formally responded to Russia's proposal to extend the New START Treaty. Donald Trump has indicated a desire for a new pact that includes China, and some U.S. politicians argue for increasing the U.S. arsenal to counter China's build-up. The U.S. is also facing significant costs for its nuclear force modernization program.
Importance 100 Sentiment -50
alliance
The New START agreement, which limited nuclear warheads for the United States and Russia, is set to expire, leading to fears of a new arms race. Its lapse removes restrictions on nuclear arsenals, potentially increasing global instability.
Importance 100 Sentiment -80
per
Donald Trump has been noncommittal about extending the New START Treaty, indicating he wants China to be part of a new pact. He has given mixed signals on arms control, suggesting a 'better agreement' if the treaty expires and even ordering the Pentagon to start nuclear weapons testing, though he has not followed through.
Importance 90 Sentiment -20
per
Vladimir Putin declared Russia's readiness to stick to the New START Treaty's limits for another year if the United States followed suit, but received no formal response. He discussed the expiration with Xi Jinping and stated Russia would act 'carefully and responsibly' while remaining open to negotiations. Putin also suspended Russia's participation in the treaty's inspections in 2023.
Importance 90 Sentiment -20
cnt
China's growing nuclear arsenal is a key factor in the U.S. stance on New START, with Donald Trump advocating for China's inclusion in future arms control talks. Beijing, however, has balked at restrictions, citing its smaller arsenal compared to the United States and Russia.
Importance 70 Sentiment -30
ngo
The Arms Control Association, through its executive director Daryl Kimball, bemoaned the end of New START and warned of an imminent threat of a new, dangerous three-way nuclear arms build-up involving the United States, Russia, and China. They advocate for continued arms control diplomacy.
Importance 70 Sentiment -10
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Vladimir Putin related Russia
Xi Jinping related China
Dmitry Medvedev related Russia
Dmitry Peskov related Russia
Yuri Ushakov related Russia
Lin Jian related China
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