New START Treaty Expires, Raising Arms Race Fears
Analysis based on 146 articles · First reported Jan 30, 2026 · Last updated Feb 05, 2026
The expiration of the New START Treaty is expected to lead to increased defense spending by the United States and Russia as they potentially expand their nuclear arsenals. This could also incentivize China to accelerate its nuclear build-up, creating a dangerous three-way arms race and increasing global instability, negatively impacting market sentiment for defense contractors and potentially leading to higher geopolitical risk premiums.
The New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between Russia and the United States, expired on February 5, leaving no caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in over half a century. This development has raised fears of an unconstrained nuclear arms race involving Russia, the United States, and China. Russian President Vladimir Putin had proposed extending the treaty's limits for another year, but U.S. President Donald Trump remained noncommittal, insisting that any new pact must include China. China, however, has rebuffed these calls, stating its nuclear forces are not on the same scale as those of the United States and Russia, while urging the United States to resume nuclear dialogue with Russia. Arms control advocates, including the Arms Control Association and the Federation of American Scientists, have expressed grave concerns about the potential for increased global instability and nuclear proliferation. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called the expiration a 'grave moment' for international peace and security. The termination of New START follows a series of other arms control agreements that have lapsed or been withdrawn from, further eroding the framework for managing nuclear risks.
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