Canada's GDP Stalls in November 2025
Analysis based on 18 articles · First reported Jan 30, 2026 · Last updated Jan 30, 2026
The Canadian economy's stalling in November 2025 and projected contraction in Q4 2025 indicate a challenging economic environment, potentially leading to cautious investor sentiment. While the Canada===Bank of Canada is expected to maintain current interest rates, the sluggish growth could impact Canadian equities and the Canadian dollar.
Canada===Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy stalled in November 2025, with real GDP growth being flat after a 0.3% decline in October. Early estimates suggest a 0.5% annualized contraction in real GDP for the final quarter of 2025, a sharp downturn from the 2.6% growth in Q3 2025. This slowdown was driven by declines in goods-producing industries, particularly manufacturing (down 1.3%) due to semiconductor shortages affecting motor vehicle production, and a 2.1% fall in wholesale trade. These were partially offset by expansion in services and a 1.3% rise in retail trade, along with rebounds from the end of strikes at Canada Post, Alberta schools, and British Columbia liquor stores. The Canada===Bank of Canada had anticipated flat growth for Q4 2025 and expects a modest recovery in 2026, having held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25%. Economists like Doug Porter of Bank of Montreal===BMO Capital Markets and Andrew Grantham of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce suggest the data reinforces a struggling economy but is unlikely to prompt further rate cuts.
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