Global Cocoa Prices Decline Amid Surplus and Weak Demand
Analysis based on 50 articles · First reported Jan 30, 2026 · Last updated Mar 03, 2026
Cocoa markets are experiencing a significant downturn due to robust global supplies, particularly from West Africa, and weak demand from chocolate makers. Currency fluctuations are also playing a role, with a strong U.S. Dollar Index undercutting NY cocoa and a weak United Kingdom===Pound sterling boosting London cocoa.
Cocoa prices are in a seven-week downtrend, reaching multi-year lows, driven by a projected global surplus and slack demand. The International Cocoa Organization and StoneX Group Inc. have both raised their surplus estimates for upcoming seasons. Major producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, are considering significant cuts to farm-gate prices due to international buyers' reluctance to pay current official prices, which are above world prices. Favorable growing conditions in West Africa are expected to boost mid-crop harvests. Demand remains weak, as evidenced by declining sales volumes reported by Barry Callebaut and reduced cocoa grindings in Europe, Asia, and North America. Higher exports from Nigeria are also contributing to increased supply. However, concerns about higher shipping costs due to the war in Iran and slowing cocoa deliveries to ports in the Ivory Coast offer some support to prices. The Ivory Coast also projects a fall in cocoa production for 2025/26, and Rabobank has cut its global cocoa surplus estimate, though it remains substantial.
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