New START Treaty Expires, US-Russia-China Arms Control Impasse

The New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms pact between the United States and Russia, expired on Thursday, February 5, leaving no caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in over half a century. This has fueled fears of an unconstrained nuclear arms race. Russian President Vladimir Putin had offered to extend the treaty for another year, but U.S. President Donald Trump ignored the offer, insisting on a new agreement that includes China. China has rebuffed these calls, citing its smaller nuclear arsenal and accusing the United States of attempting to shift responsibility for nuclear disarmament. The United States, through officials like Marco Rubio and Thomas DiNanno, has reiterated the need for China's involvement and has accused Beijing of covert nuclear tests, which China denies. Despite the treaty's expiration, the United States and Russia have agreed to reestablish high-level military-to-military dialogue, with discussions taking place in the United Arab Emirates. The original New START treaty was signed in 2010 by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev and included provisions for on-site inspections, which were suspended in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.