US Retail Import Volumes Decline Forecast

The Global Port Tracker report, co-authored by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, forecasts a significant year-over-year decline in United States-bound retail container import volumes for the first half of 2026. This decline is attributed to the ongoing impact of tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding trade policies. Jonathan Gold of the National Retail Federation emphasized the need for clear and predictable trade policies, stating that tariffs act as a tax on U.S. businesses and consumers. Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates highlighted that the use of tariffs is causing a global shift in trade relations, leading to economic stress on supply chains. The report also noted that a United States===Supreme Court of the United States decision on the legality of IEEPA tariffs is pending, which could introduce further uncertainty. Shipping carriers like Maersk and Ocean Network Express are already experiencing negative returns due to excess capacity and limited economic growth, a trend expected to worsen as Suez Canal voyages resume and new ships are delivered.