Trump Administration Backs Prediction Markets
Analysis based on 9 articles · First reported Feb 17, 2026 · Last updated Feb 17, 2026
The Trump administration's support for Kalshi and Polymarket could significantly impact the regulatory landscape for prediction markets and sports betting, potentially expanding federal oversight and eroding states' ability to regulate gambling. This could lead to increased investment and growth in the prediction market industry, while also creating uncertainty for traditional gambling operators.
The Trump administration, through the United States===Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its chairman Michael S. Selig, is backing prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in a legal battle against several states. These states, including United States===Nevada, allege that Kalshi and Polymarket are operating unlicensed gambling operations, particularly sports betting, in violation of state laws. The CFTC asserts its exclusive jurisdiction over these markets, defining them as commodities and futures rather than gambling. This intervention, which includes a 'friend of the court' briefing in Kalshi's appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit, could have significant implications for the regulation of sports betting and gambling across the United States. Donald Trump Jr.'s investments and advisory roles with Polymarket and Kalshi introduce a potential conflict of interest. Some state officials, like United States===Utah Governor Spencer Cox, oppose the CFTC's stance, arguing that prediction markets are simply gambling.
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