Global Smartphone Shipments to Plummet by 12.9%

The global smartphone market is predicted to experience its largest decline in over a decade in 2026, with shipments plummeting by 12.9% to 1.12 billion units, according to International Data Corporation (IDC). This downturn is primarily attributed to a massive shortage of Random-access memory (RAM) chips, driven by surging demand from Artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. The memory crisis is causing smartphone average selling prices to rise by 14% to a record $523, making the sub-$100 segment permanently uneconomical. IDC describes this as a 'structural reset' of the entire market, fundamentally reshaping the total addressable market, vendor landscape, and product mix. Android (operating system) manufacturers, particularly those in the low-end segment, are expected to suffer the most due to rising component costs and eroded margins. In contrast, Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics are better positioned to navigate the crisis and potentially expand their market share. Regions like the Middle East and Africa, China, and Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan and China) are forecast to experience significant shipment declines. Memory prices are expected to stabilize by mid-2027 but are unlikely to return to previous levels, with a modest market recovery anticipated in 2027 and 2028.