Nigeria's Q4 2025 GDP Exceeds Expectations
Analysis based on 8 articles · First reported Feb 27, 2026 · Last updated Feb 28, 2026
Nigeria's stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q4 2025 and for the full year 2025 is a positive signal for investors, indicating sustained economic recovery. However, persistent inflationary pressures and high poverty projections from PwC and the World Bank Group suggest that the macroeconomic gains have not yet translated into broad-based prosperity, which could temper long-term market optimism.
Nigeria's economy grew by 4.07% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025, surpassing the 3.76% growth in Q4 2024 and the International Monetary Fund's 3.4% projection for the full year. The Nigeria===National Bureau of Statistics reported a full-year growth of 3.87% for 2025, up from 3.38% in 2024. This expansion was broad-based, with agriculture growing by 4.00%, industry by 3.88%, and services by 4.15%. The services sector remained the largest contributor to GDP at 55.92%. Oil production averaged 1.58 million barrels per day, contributing to a 6.79% growth in the oil sector. The non-oil sector, accounting for 97.13% of GDP, grew by 3.99%. While Minister Wale Edun noted the milestone, analysts from PwC and the World Bank Group cautioned that poverty could reach 62% by 2026, indicating that economic growth has not yet significantly improved living standards for many citizens despite President Bola Tinubu's reforms.
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