US-Israel Strikes on Iran Threaten Oil Supply

The Middle East oil markets are facing uncertainty and potential price volatility following recent strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel. Concerns are centered around the potential disruption of Iranian oil exports, which amount to 1.6 million barrels per day, primarily to China. A major point of concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane through which 20% of global oil supply passes daily, with major exporters like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates relying on it. Analysts are debating the likelihood of Iran closing the strait, which would severely impact global oil prices and could lead to a global recession. Pre-war scenarios suggest that even limited strikes could cause a $5-$10 price jump, while a wider conflict could push crude past $90 per barrel.