Europe's Forest Disturbances to Double by 2100
Analysis based on 12 articles · First reported Mar 05, 2026 · Last updated Mar 06, 2026
The study's findings indicate a significant increase in forest disturbances across Europe, which will negatively impact timber markets due to reduced supply and increased volatility. This will also affect industries reliant on ecosystem services provided by forests, potentially leading to higher costs and reduced availability of resources.
A large international team led by researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM), including Rupert Seidl, has calculated how wildfires, storms, and bark beetles could transform Europe's forests by 2100. The study projects a substantial increase in damaged forest area, potentially doubling in the most pessimistic scenario of over 4 degrees Celsius global warming. Even with warming limited to 2 degrees Celsius, more forest damage is expected than in the 1986-2020 reference period. Southern and Western Europe are expected to be particularly affected, disrupting timber markets and threatening ecosystem services. The research, conducted as part of the Resonate project coordinated by the European Forest Institute, highlights an urgent need for forest policy and management to adapt to these rising disturbance levels.
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