Business Cocoa price decline

Global Cocoa Prices Decline on Increased Supply

Analysis based on 51 articles · First reported Mar 06, 2026 · Last updated Apr 09, 2026

Sentiment

-40

Attention

Articles

Market Impact

Direct

Live prominence charts, article sentiment distribution, and event development timeline available on the NewsDesk Dashboard

Market Impact

The sharp decline in Cocoa prices, driven by increased supplies from Ivory Coast and weak chocolate demand, is expected to negatively impact the agricultural sector, particularly Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast and Ghana. However, it could potentially benefit chocolate manufacturers by reducing raw material costs, although current demand concerns suggest consumers are balking at high chocolate prices.

Agriculture Food and Beverage

Event Summary

Cocoa prices have fallen sharply, with NY cocoa reaching a 1-month low and London cocoa a 1.5-week low. This decline is primarily attributed to an increase in Cocoa supplies from Ivory Coast, which shipped 1.45 MMT of Cocoa to ports, a 0.7% increase year-over-year. Additionally, signs of weak chocolate demand, with early estimates for Easter holiday sales tracking toward a 5% decline, are undercutting prices. Ample supplies, as indicated by ICE Cocoa inventories rising to a 19-month high, and higher exports from Nigeria further contribute to the bearish sentiment. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana have cut the official prices paid to their Cocoa farmers for upcoming seasons. While drought concerns in West Africa and an excessively short position by funds in London Cocoa could fuel a short-covering rally, the overall outlook remains bearish due to demand concerns and increased supply forecasts from organizations like the International Cocoa Organization and StoneX Group Inc..

Key Actions

100 Cocoa prices declined sharply

90 Ivory Coast increased cocoa shipments to ports

80 Ivory Coast cut cocoa farmer pay by 57%

70 Ghana cut official price paid to cocoa farmers by nearly 30%

40 Nigeria increased cocoa exports

30 Barry Callebaut reported a 22% decline in sales volume in its cocoa division

10 Rabobank cut 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate

10 International Cocoa Organization raised global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate

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Entities Involved

cmdt

Cocoa

Cocoa prices are sharply lower, with NY cocoa posting a 1-month low and London cocoa posting a 1.5-week low due to increased supplies from Ivory Coast and weak chocolate demand. This decline is also influenced by ample supplies and higher exports from Nigeria.

Importance 100 Sentiment -70

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Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast's increased cocoa shipments to ports, up 0.7% from a year ago, are weighing on Cocoa prices. The nation also cut the official price it pays its Cocoa farmers by 57% for the mid-crop harvest, and projected a 10.8% y/y fall in Cocoa production for 2025/26.

Importance 90 Sentiment 0

cnt

Ghana

Ghana cut the official price it pays its Cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 growing season. Drought conditions in Ghana are a concern for future Cocoa supplies, which could be supportive for Cocoa prices.

Importance 70 Sentiment 0

cnt

Nigeria

Higher exports from Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest Cocoa producer, are undercutting Cocoa prices. However, Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects an 11% y/y fall in Cocoa production for 2025/26.

Importance 40 Sentiment 0

stock

Barry Callebaut

Barry Callebaut AG, the world's largest bulk chocolate maker, reported a 22% decline in sales volume in its Cocoa division, citing negative market demand and a prioritization of volume toward higher-return segments within Cocoa.

Importance 30 Sentiment -20

priv

Rabobank

Rabobank cut its 2025/26 global Cocoa surplus estimate to 250,000 MT from a November forecast of 328,000 MT, indicating a potentially tighter market than previously expected.

Importance 10 Sentiment 0

ngo

International Cocoa Organization

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) raised its global 2024/25 Cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT from 49,000 MT, suggesting an increase in global Cocoa production.

Importance 10 Sentiment 0

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Relationships

Ivory Coast related ↔ Ghana

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