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Business export forecast

India's Basmati Rice Exports Steady Despite Middle East Conflict

Analysis based on 8 articles · First reported Mar 16, 2026 · Last updated Mar 17, 2026

Sentiment
10
Attention
2
Articles
8
Market Impact
Direct
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The market for basmati rice exports from India is expected to remain stable, with increased demand from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen offsetting reduced exports to Iran. This stability, however, comes with potential logistical challenges and increased working capital requirements for exporters, which they plan to pass on to customers.

Agriculture Shipping Food processing

S&P Global===CRISIL Ratings forecasts that India's basmati rice export volume will remain steady in FY26 and FY27, with up to 2% growth over the 6.06 million tonne logged last fiscal. This resilience is despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has disrupted supply chains and is expected to impact exports to Iran, a key market. Higher demand from other Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen is anticipated to offset these losses. Exporters are exploring alternative routes to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, which may increase transit times and working capital requirements by 10-15%, but healthy balance sheets are expected to keep credit profiles stable. India is the largest producer and exporter of basmati rice, accounting for 85% of global volume.

90 India expected to maintain steady basmati rice export volume
70 S&P Global===CRISIL published report on basmati rice export forecast
60 Iran expected to reduce basmati rice imports India
50 Saudi Arabia expected to increase basmati rice demand India
50 Iraq expected to increase basmati rice demand India
50 United Arab Emirates expected to increase basmati rice demand India
40 Yemen expected to increase basmati rice demand India
cnt
India, as the largest producer and exporter of basmati rice, is expected to maintain steady export volumes, with increased demand from some Middle Eastern countries offsetting losses from Iran. This resilience helps stabilize its agricultural export sector.
Importance 90 Sentiment 10
subs
S&P Global===CRISIL Ratings published a report forecasting steady basmati rice export volumes for India despite Middle East conflicts, providing analysis on market dynamics and financial health of exporters.
Importance 70 Sentiment 0
cnt
Iran, a key market for Indian basmati rice, is expected to see a drop in imports due to ongoing conflicts and supply chain disruptions, impacting its food security and trade relations.
Importance 60 Sentiment -20
cnt
Saudi Arabia is expected to increase its demand for Indian basmati rice, helping to offset export losses to Iran and contributing to the overall stability of India's basmati rice exports.
Importance 50 Sentiment 10
cnt
Iraq is anticipated to show higher demand for Indian basmati rice, which will support India's export volumes amidst regional conflicts.
Importance 50 Sentiment 10
cnt
The United Arab Emirates is projected to increase its demand for Indian basmati rice, playing a role in maintaining India's steady export performance.
Importance 50 Sentiment 10
cnt
Yemen is expected to contribute to the increased demand for Indian basmati rice from the Middle East, helping to stabilize export volumes.
Importance 40 Sentiment 10
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