Coffee Prices Rise on Hormuz Closure, Brazil Rain
Analysis based on 22 articles · First reported Mar 16, 2026 · Last updated Apr 20, 2026
Coffee prices are experiencing upward pressure due to geopolitical tensions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and adverse weather in Brazil's Brazil===Minas Gerais. However, projections of record coffee crops in Brazil and increased exports from Vietnam are creating a bearish counter-effect, leading to a mixed but generally positive sentiment for Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora prices.
Coffee prices are rising due to Iran's statement about closing the Strait of Hormuz, which has increased global shipping costs and tightened supplies. This has particularly impacted Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora. Further support for prices comes from falling ICE robusta inventories and below-average rainfall in Brazil's Brazil===Minas Gerais, as reported by Somar Meteorologia, which could curb yields. However, these gains are being limited by expectations of a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop, with projections from Marex Group Plc, Sucafina, and StoneX Group Inc. StoneX also forecasts a significant global coffee surplus for 2026. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, reported by the Vietnam===National Statistics Office of Vietnam, are also a bearish factor for robusta prices. Conversely, smaller exports from Brazil, as reported by Conselho dos Exportadores de Cafe do Brasil and Brazil's Brazil===Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, are supportive of prices. The International Coffee Organization reported a slight decrease in global coffee exports, while the United States===United States Department of Agriculture projected an increase in world coffee production for 2025/26, with a decrease in arabica and an increase in robusta, and a fall in ending stocks.
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