National Retail Federation Forecasts 4.4% Retail Sales Growth

The National Retail Federation (National Retail Federation) has released its 2026 retail sales forecast, predicting a 4.4% growth to $5.6 trillion, based on an enhanced approach developed with Oxford Economics. This projection, announced during the State of Retail & the Consumer event, is more optimistic than the average annual growth of the last decade. National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay and Chief Economist Mark Mathews highlighted consumer resilience and underlying U.S. economic fundamentals as key drivers, despite geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation. The forecast anticipates a modest boost from tax cuts and a softening labor market with unemployment remaining below 4.5%. While consumer sentiment is low, National Retail Federation notes its historical disconnection from actual spending. Other analysts, including Wells Fargo and Moody's Corporation===Moody s Ratings, offered more cautious outlooks, citing signs of consumer weakness and potential declines in real spending growth.