India's Oilmeal Exports Face China Competition, Geopolitical Disruptions

India's oilmeal exports to China surged over 20-fold in the first eleven months of the fiscal year 2025-26, reaching 7.79 lakh tonnes, primarily driven by competitive pricing and China's 100% tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal. However, this favorable situation is now challenged as China suspended these tariffs on Canadian canola (rapeseed) meal until December 31, 2026, effective March 1, 2026. This move is expected to intensify competition for Indian exporters in the Chinese market. Concurrently, India's overall oilmeal exports declined by 22% in February and 11% for the April-February period. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, have significantly disrupted India's oilmeal exports to the Middle East and Europe. Instability around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea is forcing shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-15 days to transit times, increasing costs, and causing container shortages. These disruptions threaten the continuity and competitiveness of India's oilmeal exports to key markets.