Domestic Monsoon forecast

India's 2026 Monsoon Forecast Below Normal

Analysis based on 14 articles · First reported Apr 15, 2026 · Last updated Apr 17, 2026

Sentiment

-70

Attention

Articles

Market Impact

Direct

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Market Impact

The projected weak monsoon, coupled with potential El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions and West Asia conflict-related fertilizer supply risks, is expected to negatively impact India's agricultural output and rural demand. This could lead to increased food prices and higher consumer price inflation, posing downside risks to India's economic growth forecasts.

Agriculture Fertilizer Food

Event Summary

The India===India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-normal Southwest Monsoon for 2026, with rainfall estimated at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the lowest first-stage forecast in 25 years. This outlook, combined with a 62% probability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation developing, poses significant risks to India's agriculture sector. ICRA predicts that sub-par rainfall will negatively impact kharif crop sowing, agricultural output, farm cash flows, and food prices. Additionally, ongoing conflict in West Asia threatens fertilizer supply chains, potentially affecting domestic production and requiring alternative sourcing for India. These factors are expected to weigh on India's FY2027 agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) growth and push consumer price inflation (CPI) above 4.5%. While current reservoir levels offer some buffer, the overall outlook for rural demand and agricultural performance in India remains uncertain.

Key Actions

80 India===India Meteorological Department projected below-normal Southwest Monsoon rainfall for 2026

75 ICRA flagged downside risks to FY2027 agriculture GVA growth forecast

70 ICRA expects consumer price inflation to exceed 4.5%

65 West Asia conflict may disrupt fertilizer supply chains India

Entities Involved

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India

India's agriculture sector faces significant risks due to a projected weak monsoon, potential El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions, and fertilizer supply disruptions. This could lead to lower agricultural output, higher food prices, and weakened rural demand, impacting India's overall economic growth and inflation.

Importance 100 Sentiment -60

priv

ICRA

ICRA has issued a report forecasting a challenging year for India's agriculture sector due to weak monsoon, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and fertilizer supply risks. It has flagged downside risks to its FY2027 agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) growth forecast and expects consumer price inflation (CPI) to exceed 4.5%.

Importance 80 Sentiment 0

govactor

India===India Meteorological Department

The India===India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its first long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon, projecting below-normal rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This forecast is a key indicator for the agricultural outlook.

Importance 70 Sentiment 0

cbnk

India===Reserve Bank of India

The India===Reserve Bank of India closely monitors food prices, which account for nearly a third of India's consumer price index. Below-normal rainfall, combined with rising commodity costs due to the Iran conflict, could lift overall inflation and potentially force the India===Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates, impacting its monetary policy.

Importance 70 Sentiment -50

curr

India===Indian rupee

A slowdown in economic momentum and higher inflation, resulting from a weaker monsoon, could add more pressure on the India===Indian rupee, which has been among the worst-performing Asian currencies in 2026.

Importance 60 Sentiment -40

loc

West Asia

The ongoing conflict in West Asia poses risks to fertilizer supply chains, affecting both raw materials and finished products for India. This could lead to challenges for domestic production and necessitate alternative sourcing.

Importance 50 Sentiment -30

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Narendra Modi

Rising inflation, potentially exacerbated by a weak monsoon, could make it difficult for Narendra Modi's India===Bharatiya Janata Party in crucial state elections. The government may also struggle to pass on higher energy costs to consumers, straining its finances.

Importance 50 Sentiment -30

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Relationships

ICRA related ↔ India===India Meteorological Department

ICRA related ↔ India

India related ↔ India===India Meteorological Department

Narendra Modi related ↔ India===Bharatiya Janata Party

India related ↔ India===Reserve Bank of India

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