Snapshot from Apr 21, 2026 at 07:00 UTC. For live data and tracking: View Live
Events / CRISIL Forecasts India's CAD Widening
Business economic forecast

CRISIL Forecasts India's CAD Widening

Analysis based on 7 articles · First reported Apr 17, 2026 · Last updated Apr 17, 2026

Sentiment
-20
Attention
4
Articles
7
Market Impact
Direct
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Market Impact

The projected widening of India's current account deficit due to higher crude oil prices and global uncertainties could negatively impact investor confidence in India's economy. However, tariff relaxations from the United States offer some mitigating support for India's exports.

Oil and Gas Gems and Jewellery International Trade
Event Summary

A report by S&P Global===CRISIL forecasts that India's current account deficit (CAD) is likely to reach 2% of GDP in fiscal 2027 if crude oil prices average USD 82-87 per barrel. This is an increase from the base case projection of 1.5% CAD with oil prices at USD 75-80 per barrel. The widening deficit is attributed to global factors such as the West Asia conflict and subdued global growth, which are weighing on India's exports. India's goods exports contracted by 7.4% year-on-year in March, with a significant drop in gems and jewellery exports. Despite these challenges, exports to the United States showed some improvement due to tariff reductions, though uncertainties regarding the trade deal remain. The United Arab Emirates has emerged as a key destination for India's gems and jewellery exports.

Key Actions
100 India experienced widening current account deficit
90 India contracted goods exports
80 S&P Global===CRISIL published economic forecast report
60 United States reduced tariffs on Indian goods India
Entities Involved
cnt
India
India's current account deficit is projected to widen, potentially reaching 2% of GDP under higher crude oil price scenarios. This widening CAD is influenced by global conflicts, subdued global growth, and a contraction in goods exports, particularly in gems and jewellery.
Importance 100 Sentiment -30
cmdt
Petroleum
Higher crude oil prices, specifically in the range of USD 82-87 per barrel, are a primary driver for the projected widening of India's current account deficit.
Importance 80 Sentiment 0
subs
S&P Global===CRISIL
S&P Global===CRISIL published a report forecasting India's current account deficit, providing critical economic analysis that informs market participants.
Importance 70 Sentiment 10
cnt
United States
The United States' tariff relaxations on Indian goods are expected to provide some support to India's exports, although uncertainties around the trade deal persist. It is also a significant destination for India's exports.
Importance 50 Sentiment 0
cnt
United Arab Emirates
The United Arab Emirates has recently become India's top destination for gems and jewellery exports, surpassing the United States, indicating a shift in trade dynamics.
Importance 40 Sentiment 0
Relationships
S&P Global===CRISIL related ↔ India
India related ↔ United States
India related ↔ United Arab Emirates
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