Syria's Reliance on Russian Oil

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Russia has become the dominant crude oil supplier to Syria, with shipments increasing by 75% to approximately 60,000 barrels per day this year. This shift occurred after Iran, previously Syria's main supplier, halted its oil deliveries. Despite Syria's new Western-leaning government and the lifting of some sanctions by the European Union and the United States, its economy remains weakly integrated into the global financial system, limiting its options for oil procurement. The trade with Russia, while economically necessary for Syria, risks straining its relations with Western powers and exposes its energy sector to potential renewed sanctions, especially if the United States fails to reach an agreement with Russia regarding Ukraine. Syrian officials are aware of these risks and are attempting to diversify suppliers, including an unsuccessful attempt to secure a deal with Turkey. The oil trade often involves sanctioned or high-risk tankers and ship-to-ship transfers, sometimes near Greece, Cyprus, or Egypt, to obscure cargo origin and ownership, indicating efforts by Syrian and Russian authorities to conceal these shipments.