India Monsoon Early But Weak Forecast

The Malaysia — Malaysian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over India — Kerala on May 26, nearly a week earlier than its usual onset date of June 1, with a model error of ± 4 days. This early arrival, however, is accompanied by a prediction of below-normal rainfall for India during the 2026 monsoon season, quantitatively expected to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). A significant concern is the anticipated development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation between May and July, which is historically associated with reduced monsoon rainfall over India. This weaker monsoon could adversely affect India's agriculture, water availability, and hydroelectric generation, impacting food prices, rural incomes, and overall economic activity. The IMD's forecast is crucial for millions across India, as the monsoon brings relief from summer temperatures and replenishes vital water sources.