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Events / Geopolitical / Scientists Update Climate...
International climate projection update

Scientists Update Climate Projections, Trump Reacts

Analysis based on 27 articles · First reported May 18, 2026 · Last updated May 28, 2026

Sentiment
-20
Attention
6
Articles
27
Market Impact
Direct
Live prominence charts, article sentiment distribution, and event development timeline available on the NewsDesk Dashboard
Market Impact

The updated climate projections indicate a narrowing of future warming scenarios, with the worst-case being less severe but the Paris Agreement>>>'s 1.5-degree Celsius goal now considered unattainable. This suggests continued pressure on industries reliant on Coal>>>, Petroleum>>>, and Natural gas>>> as the push for green energy intensifies, even if the most catastrophic outcomes are less likely. The political discourse, exemplified by Donald Trump>>>'s comments, highlights ongoing challenges in policy implementation and public perception, which could affect investment in climate-related technologies and adaptation measures.

Renewable energy Fossil fuels Environmental services
Event Summary

Scientists have updated global warming projections, jettisoning the previous worst- and best-case scenarios as no longer plausible. The new analysis indicates that while the most catastrophic warming of 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 is now less likely due to increased green energy use, the international goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, set by the Paris Agreement>>>, is also unattainable. The updated best-case scenario still projects warming to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, peaking at 1.7 degrees Celsius for decades. Detlef van Vuuren>>>, Johan Rockström>>>, Bill Hare>>>, Natalie Mahowald>>>, and Keywan Riahi>>> provided expert commentary on these revisions, emphasizing that the world is currently on a path to 3 degrees Celsius of warming. Donald Trump>>> reacted to these updates on Truth Social>>>, misrepresenting the scientific findings as an admission that the United Nations>>>'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change>>>'s projections were 'WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!'. Scientists clarified that the changes reflect both modest gains in curbing emissions and the inherent physics of climate change, with climate feedbacks still posing a significant risk.

Key Actions
97 Donald Trump proposed budget cuts Guyana — Guyana Environmental Protection Agency
90 Donald Trump blasted accuracy Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
85 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change updated projections
80 Detlef van Vuuren laid out scenarios
70 Andrew King (climate scientist) explained scenario removal
60 Detlef van Vuuren responded to comments
60 Detlef van Vuuren responded to comments Donald Trump
55 Donald Trump revoked finding Guyana — Guyana Environmental Protection Agency
50 United States — United States Department of Energy issued report
45 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine issued report Donald Trump
40 Donald Trump stopped posting reports
Entities Involved
per
Detlef van Vuuren
Detlef van Vuuren>>> is the lead author of the study that updated future climate scenarios, providing key insights into the narrowing range of plausible warming futures.
Importance 80 Sentiment 0
ngo
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) updated its worst-case climate scenario (RCP8.5), which Donald Trump misrepresented. The IPCC's work is central to international climate policy discussions.
Importance 75 Sentiment 10
alliance
Paris Agreement
The Paris Agreement>>>'s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is now considered unattainable by scientists, even in their best-case scenarios, indicating a failure to meet international climate targets.
Importance 70 Sentiment -10
per
Donald Trump
Donald Trump>>> used the updated climate projections to blast the United Nations>>>'s climate committee on Truth Social>>>, misrepresenting the scientific findings as an admission of being 'WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!'
Importance 70 Sentiment -30
alliance
United Nations
The United Nations produces scientific reports on global warming, and its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) updated its climate projections, leading to the controversy. The IPCC's work has been recognized with a Nobel Prize.
Importance 70 Sentiment 10
per
Johan Rockström
Johan Rockström>>>, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research>>>, commented on the narrowing of future climate projections, emphasizing that while the worst-case is less likely, the best-case is also slipping away.
Importance 60 Sentiment 0
per
Bill Hare
Bill Hare>>>, CEO of Climate Analytics>>>, highlighted that the inability to limit warming to two degrees is a political failure, not an act of God, due to insufficient action by politicians.
Importance 60 Sentiment 0
per
Natalie Mahowald
Natalie Mahowald>>>, co-author of a United Nations>>> science report, emphasized the severe implications of not meeting the 1.5-degree goal, particularly for small island developing states.
Importance 60 Sentiment 0
per
Keywan Riahi
Keywan Riahi>>>, lead author of the 2011 study that introduced the RCP8.5 scenario, clarified that it was never considered a likely case but rather a plausible higher bound, and noted the success in renewable energy cost reduction.
Importance 60 Sentiment 0
cmdt
Coal
The decreasing reliance on Coal>>> for energy production has contributed to the lowering of the worst-case carbon pollution projections.
Importance 60 Sentiment -10
cmdt
Petroleum
The burning of Petroleum>>> is a significant source of carbon dioxide, contributing to global warming, though increased green energy use is impacting its future projections.
Importance 60 Sentiment -10
cmdt
Natural gas
The burning of Natural gas>>> is a significant source of carbon dioxide, contributing to global warming, though increased green energy use is impacting its future projections.
Importance 60 Sentiment -10
ngo
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research>>> is represented by its director, Johan Rockström>>>, who provided expert commentary on the updated climate scenarios.
Importance 50 Sentiment 0
ngo
Climate Analytics
Climate Analytics>>>'s CEO, Bill Hare>>>, provided a critical perspective on the political failures contributing to the inability to meet climate goals.
Importance 50 Sentiment 0
per
Roger A. Pielke Jr.
Roger A. Pielke Jr.>>> of the American Enterprise Institute>>> pointed out that the highest warming scenario (RCP8.5) was always presented as a likely future despite being based on outdated and incorrect energy theories.
Importance 50 Sentiment 0
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