Iran & United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Iran: Iran is central to the geopolitical context of the event, as Donald Trump's announcements regarding Iran's power infrastructure, ceasefires, and the Strait of Hormuz directly influenced oil prices.

United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission is actively investigating the suspicious oil trades, focusing on potential insider trading.

Iran: Iran is a key nation involved in geopolitical events that Donald Trump made announcements about, leading to significant movements in oil prices and subsequent suspicious trading activity.

United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission has jurisdiction over predictions markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, and its chair stated a 'zero tolerance' for fraud and insider trading, despite not commenting on specific allegations.

Iran: Iran is a primary belligerent in the conflict, engaging in military actions, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and establishing a new agency to control shipping, leading to international condemnation and economic strain.

United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating $7 billion in oil price trades that occurred before key Iran-related announcements by Donald Trump, indicating potential market manipulation.

Iran: Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire with the United States and committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which had a major impact on global oil prices and shipping. Iran also proposed a 10-point plan for negotiations.

United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees US commodity derivatives markets, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.