WTO Warns Middle East War Threatens Global Trade
Analysis based on 7 articles · First reported Mar 19, 2026 · Last updated Mar 20, 2026
The World Trade Organization's revised trade outlook, influenced by the escalating Middle East war and high energy prices, suggests a significant slowdown in global merchandise trade growth. This could lead to increased cost pressures on consumers and businesses, and potential threats to global food security, particularly impacting net fuel-importing regions like Asia and Europe.
The World Trade Organization (World Trade Organization) released its annual global trade outlook, warning that the escalating Middle East war, initiated by US-Israeli forces against Iran, poses significant risks to global trade and food security. The conflict has led to soaring energy prices and nearly halted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global transport corridor. World Trade Organization chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted the potential for sustained energy price increases to impact global trade volumes, food security, and consumer/business costs. The World Trade Organization presented two scenarios for 2024: a baseline scenario with 1.9% merchandise trade growth, and a pessimistic scenario, based on an average annual oil price of $90 a barrel (below current Brent Crude prices), forecasting only 1.4% growth. This slowdown is expected to particularly affect net fuel-importing regions such as Asia and Europe. The World Trade Organization emphasized the need for predictable trade policies and strengthened supply chain resilience to mitigate these economic burdens.
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